Situation overview

Global Network’s key messages based on the review of the latest information and analysis from partners on the impacts of the conflict on food crises.
  • Several Middle Eastern, northern and sub-Saharan African, as well as South Asian, countries are contingent on wheat imports from Russia and Ukraine. In particular, in 2020, 38 countries and territories affected by food crises received 34 percent of the total Ukrainian exports of wheat and maize products and food crisis countries accounted for 73 percent of Russian exports of wheat (Global Network calculations based on FAOSTAT data available for 47 food crisis countries in 2020).
  • Among them, 27 countries and territories were affected by major food crises, and received around 13.4 million tonnes of the total exports of Russian and Ukrainian wheat and maize products.
  • Among the largest importers, Yemen, the Sudan, Nigeria and Ethiopia were also among the 10 largest food crises in terms of population in IPC/CH Phase 3 or above in 2020 – three of them were also on the list of Low Income and Food Deficit countries as established by FAO.
  • With all projections pointing towards an increase in humanitarian financing needs in 2022-2023, a number of exceptional supplementary ODA budget increases have been approved to cover growing humanitarian needs in Ukraine as well in other countries. Given the reliance on ad-hoc supplemental budgets in 2022, concerns about funding in 2023 are high. However, in a context of growing needs, the gap between requirements and funding is greater than ever. Global humanitarian financing flows are now higher than at the same time in previous years. The distribution of additional humanitarian funding is uneven and development ODA has suffered important cuts to finance in-country refugee costs (OCHA, 14 June 2022).
  • The situation calls more than ever for supporting livelihoods and food production where it is the most needed: where food availability will be limited by reduced imports, and food access will be curtailed by higher prices and increasingly limited humanitarian food assistance, subsistence agriculture and resilience to shocks will be key for maintaining vulnerable populations’ food security.
  • In 2021, 22 countries affected by food crises were net importers of wheat and depended for at least 35 percent on imports of wheat from the Russian Federation and Ukraine (source: FAO. 2022. Information note: 10 June 2022 Update).
  • In terms of food supply, wheat and its products represented on average 408 kcals per capita per day in 2019  across food-crisis countries. Its contribution was above this level in 15 countries, including in four affected by major food crises – Afghanistan (1 397 kcal/capita/day), the Syrian Arab Republic (1 092), Yemen (925), Pakistan (874), and the Sudan (535) – and relatively dependent on imports (Global Network calculations based on FAOSTAT data available for 52 food crisis countries in 2019).
  • In addition, access to fertilizers in food crisis countries might be limited by the consequences of the war in Ukraine as fertilizer price continue to increase on international markets. In this context, it is worth noting that food-crisis countries as geographically diverse as Honduras, Cameroon, Guatemala, Sierra Leone and Mozambique were net importers and depended on the Russian Federation for 15–55 percent of their fertilizer imports (source: FAO. 2022. Information note: 10 June 2022 Update).
  • In 2022, while the wheat stock-to-use ratio in food crisis countries is estimated at 17 percent as a whole, in the major food crises it was estimated at 14 percent, and in the 10 largest food crises at 11 percent – thus highlighting a low availability and high vulnerability to shocks on international markets. For maize, the stock-to-use ratio was respectively estimated at 13 percent, 10 and 8 percent in the three groups of countries (Global Network calculations based on IFPRI/USDA-PSD. Data accessed on 10 May 2022).

Global implications on food security



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percent of total calories traded come from Ukraine and the Russian Federation

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percent of the global market of sunflower seed oil is supplied by Ukraine

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percent of North Africa and the Middle East cereal needs and a large share of wheat and barley import are from Ukraine and Russian Federation

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percent increase in the price of natural gas – a key input for fertilizers – year-on-year in Europe

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points the FAO Food Price Index average in June 2022, down 3.7 points (2.3 percent) from May, 29.0 points (23.1 percent) above its value in June 2021

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countries affected by food crises in 2021 were net importers of wheat and depended for at least 35 percent on imports of wheat from the Russian Federation and Ukraine

Ukraine crisis in numbers



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million people in need, including 10.2 million in need of food security and livelihoods assistance

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million people targeted, including 7 million targeted with food security and livelihoods assistance

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billion (USD) required for the humanitarian response, of which 469.5 million required for the food security and livelihoods sector

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million Ukrainian refugees recorded in Europe, of which 3.71 million have registered for Temporary Protection or similar national protection schemes as of 26 July 2022

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million IDPs as of 23 June 2022

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percent of areas under winter crops estimated to remain unharvested during the 2022/23 season

Relevant Resources

Latest information and analyses from partners on the impacts of the conflict on food crises along with Global Network's summary messages.

Ukraine: Note on the impact of the war on food security in Ukraine
(Country)

FAO - 20/07/2022
  • As a result of the war, the projected decline of Ukraine’s GDP (by around 45% in 2022) may increase the poverty rate in the country, with approximately 60% of the population forecast to be in poverty by 2023, presenting major risks to the food security of vulnerable households and communities. The latest WFP assessment found that one third of all households were food insecure, of which 5% were severely food insecure, with the highest levels of food insecurity in areas most heavily impacted by the war.
  • Ukraine will also soon exhaust its available grain storage capacity. Considering the above-average production in 2021 and abrupt closure of maritime export channels, silos in the country will not have sufficient capacity to store winter and spring crops harvested in 2022. Availability and access to critical agricultural inputs e.g., fertilizer and fuel are also of particular concern as they have registered significant price increases across the country.  
  • Ukraine is also a net exporter of agricultural products and a leading supplier of foodstuff and fertilizer to the global market. A large number of food and fertilizer importing countries, many of which fall into the least developed country and low-income food-deficit country groups, rely on Ukrainian food supplies to meet their consumption needs and the ongoing disruptions will be to their detriment. 

 

Addressing food security challenges faced by Near East and North Africa region due to the Ukraine crisis
(Regional)

FAO - 20/07/2022
  • The Russian Federation and Ukraine are key suppliers of foodstuffs to many countries in the Near East and North Africa such as Egypt, Sudan, and Yemen, for mainly wheat and cereal imports, as they play a key role for food consumption in these countries. For example, in Yemen, 97 percent of wheat consumption is imported, and a large portion of the Yemeni population’s caloric intake consists of wheat products.
  • The Ukraine war has intensified pressure to domestic food prices which is being transmitted to consumers. Higher domestic prices of essential foods are set to exacerbate the levels of food insecurity in countries such as Yemen which are already in a dire state. For countries with high fertilizer dependence on the Russian Federation and Belarus, the potential shortage and high price of fertilizers could significantly decrease fertilizer use, and cause lower productivity in the following years, further adding to food security pressures. 

Ukraine Emergency: UNHCR Operational Response, Delivery Updates
(Country)

UNHCR - 19/07/2022
  • Fierce fighting in the East and deadly missile strikes in the past week brought more destruction and devastating impacts in Ukraine in several oblasts. On 14 July, Russian missiles hit the city of Vinnytsia far from the current frontline in the East and the South, killing more than 20 civilians including children. Hostilities have destroyed critical infrastructure leaving millions of people without access to basic lifelines such as health services, water, electricity, and gas.
  • Nearly 1.6 million people have been reached with assistance to date. 422,129 people received targeted protection assistance and information at border points, transit, and reception centres. 550,244 individuals enrolled to receive cash assistance and 391,372 individuals received their payments. 625,577 people received essential items, clothes, shelter materials and food assistance. 107,525 people have received assistance through 127 humanitarian convoys delivered to hard-hit areas. 

GIEWS: Kenya Country Brief
(Country)

FAO - 15/07/2022
  • In the March to June period, about 4.1 million people (27 percent of the analysed population) were estimated to be severely food insecure (IPC Phase 3 [Crisis] and Phase 4 [Emergency]). This figure, which includes about 3 million people in IPC Phase 3 (Crisis) and 1.1 million in IPC Phase 4 (Emergency), is about 40 percent higher than the same time last year
  • Prolonged drought conditions are significantly affecting rangeland resources in northern pastoral areas and central and southern agro pastoral areas. The sharp increase in international prices of fuel and fertilizers, caused by the war in Ukraine, is also expected to constrain yields and inflate production and transportation costs. Prices of maize are already at higher levels across the country due to the same.  

GIEWS: Democratic Republic of the Congo Country Brief
(Country)

FAO - 14/07/2022
  • Cereal production in eastern provinces has been affected by increased violence, population displacements and floods. Elevated international prices of fuel and fertilizers could lead to a lower use of agricultural inputs and potentially reduced yields in 2022. Prices of imported staple foods are also at high levels because of limited availabilities in the local markets due to reduced imports of some commodities, such as maize flour and vegetable oil, amid high transportation costs.
  • According to the latest IPC analysis, about 26 million people (25 percent of the total population) were projected to face Phase 3 (Crisis) or worse and above levels of acute food insecurity between January and June 2022. However, due to the recent escalation of conflicts in eastern provinces, coupled with the high prices of staple food, the magnitude and severity of acute food insecurity may exceed the projected levels.

 

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