Situation overview

Global Network’s key messages based on the review of the latest information and analysis from partners on the impacts of the conflict on food crises.
  • Several Middle Eastern, northern and sub-Saharan African, as well as South Asian, countries are contingent on wheat imports from Russia and Ukraine. In particular, in 2020, 38 countries and territories affected by food crises received 34 percent of the total Ukrainian exports of wheat and maize products and food crisis countries accounted for 73 percent of Russian exports of wheat (Global Network calculations based on FAOSTAT data available for 47 food crisis countries in 2020).
  • Among them, 27 countries and territories were affected by major food crises, and received around 13.4 million tonnes of the total exports of Russian and Ukrainian wheat and maize products.
  • Among the largest importers, Yemen, the Sudan, Nigeria and Ethiopia were also among the 10 largest food crises in terms of population in IPC/CH Phase 3 or above in 2020 – three of them were also on the list of Low Income and Food Deficit countries as established by FAO.
  • With all projections pointing towards an increase in humanitarian financing needs in 2022-2023, a number of exceptional supplementary ODA budget increases have been approved to cover growing humanitarian needs in Ukraine as well in other countries. Given the reliance on ad-hoc supplemental budgets in 2022, concerns about funding in 2023 are high. However, in a context of growing needs, the gap between requirements and funding is greater than ever. Global humanitarian financing flows are now higher than at the same time in previous years. The distribution of additional humanitarian funding is uneven and development ODA has suffered important cuts to finance in-country refugee costs (OCHA, 14 June 2022).
  • The situation calls more than ever for supporting livelihoods and food production where it is the most needed: where food availability will be limited by reduced imports, and food access will be curtailed by higher prices and increasingly limited humanitarian food assistance, subsistence agriculture and resilience to shocks will be key for maintaining vulnerable populations’ food security.
  • In 2021, 22 countries affected by food crises were net importers of wheat and depended for at least 35 percent on imports of wheat from the Russian Federation and Ukraine (source: FAO. 2022. Information note: 10 June 2022 Update).
  • In terms of food supply, wheat and its products represented on average 408 kcals per capita per day in 2019  across food-crisis countries. Its contribution was above this level in 15 countries, including in four affected by major food crises – Afghanistan (1 397 kcal/capita/day), the Syrian Arab Republic (1 092), Yemen (925), Pakistan (874), and the Sudan (535) – and relatively dependent on imports (Global Network calculations based on FAOSTAT data available for 52 food crisis countries in 2019).
  • In addition, access to fertilizers in food crisis countries might be limited by the consequences of the war in Ukraine as fertilizer price continue to increase on international markets. In this context, it is worth noting that food-crisis countries as geographically diverse as Honduras, Cameroon, Guatemala, Sierra Leone and Mozambique were net importers and depended on the Russian Federation for 15–55 percent of their fertilizer imports (source: FAO. 2022. Information note: 10 June 2022 Update).
  • In 2022, while the wheat stock-to-use ratio in food crisis countries is estimated at 17 percent as a whole, in the major food crises it was estimated at 14 percent, and in the 10 largest food crises at 11 percent – thus highlighting a low availability and high vulnerability to shocks on international markets. For maize, the stock-to-use ratio was respectively estimated at 13 percent, 10 and 8 percent in the three groups of countries (Global Network calculations based on IFPRI/USDA-PSD. Data accessed on 10 May 2022).

Global implications on food security



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percent of total calories traded come from Ukraine and the Russian Federation

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percent of the global market of sunflower seed oil is supplied by Ukraine

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percent of North Africa and the Middle East cereal needs and a large share of wheat and barley import are from Ukraine and Russian Federation

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percent increase in the price of natural gas – a key input for fertilizers – year-on-year in Europe

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points the FAO Food Price Index average in June 2022, down 3.7 points (2.3 percent) from May, 29.0 points (23.1 percent) above its value in June 2021

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countries affected by food crises in 2021 were net importers of wheat and depended for at least 35 percent on imports of wheat from the Russian Federation and Ukraine

Ukraine crisis in numbers



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million people in need, including 10.2 million in need of food security and livelihoods assistance

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million people targeted, including 7 million targeted with food security and livelihoods assistance

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billion (USD) required for the humanitarian response, of which 469.5 million required for the food security and livelihoods sector

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million Ukrainian refugees recorded in Europe, of which 3.71 million have registered for Temporary Protection or similar national protection schemes as of 26 July 2022

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million IDPs as of 23 June 2022

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percent of areas under winter crops estimated to remain unharvested during the 2022/23 season

Relevant Resources

Latest information and analyses from partners on the impacts of the conflict on food crises along with Global Network's summary messages.

CILSS: Impact of the High Cost of Living and the Russia-Ukraine Crisis on Food and Nutritional Security in the Sahel and West Africa
Information and Watch Newsletter (Regional)

CILSS / RPCA - 01/08/2022
  • Cereal import needs for West Africa are expected to be higher than last year. However, almost 46% of imported wheat flour comes from Russian Federation and Ukraine. Some countries are of particular concern as the share of wheat imports from Russia represents a very high proportion of total imports.
  • The majority of CILSS/ECOWAS countries are heavily dependent on fertilizer imports, particularly from the Russian Federation. In the short term, the countries that are likely to be most affected by the fertilizer shortage are Burkina Faso, Ghana and Mali.
  • Despite the residual effects of the COVID 19 pandemic on the prices of basic commodities, fuel, and fertilizers in the region, the most significant variations in the prices of these products are observed in comparison with January 2022 as a result of the war in Ukraine. The inflationary trends observed are expected to be further exacerbated by the increased demand during the lean season.

Ukraine Situation Flash Update #22
(Country)

UNHCR - 22/07/2022
  • Since the onset of the Russian invasion, nearly one-third of Ukrainians have been forced from their homes, creating the largest human displacement crisis in the world today. Within Ukraine, over 6.3 million people remain displaced by the war.  Currently UNHCR estimates there are close to six million refugees present across Europe and over 3.7 million refugees from Ukraine have registered for temporary protection or similar national protection schemes.
  • Inside Ukraine, many people who are trapped are unable to meet their basic needs including food, water, and medicines. The delivery of life-saving aid remains challenging, with a lack of safe humanitarian access in areas where intense fighting is ongoing. As of 17 July, the Office of the UN High Commissioner for Human Rights (OHCHR) recorded 11,554 civilian casualties in the country: 5,110 killed – including 346 children – and 6,752 injured. OHCHR notes that the actual figures are likely considerably higher.

Ukraine Agricultural Production and Trade
(Country)

USDA - 22/07/2022
  • Ukraine is one of the world’s top agricultural producers and exporters and plays a critical role in supplying oilseeds and grains to the global market. More than 55 percent of Ukraine’s land area is arable land and agriculture provides employment for 14 percent of Ukraine’s population. Agricultural products are Ukraine’s most important exports. 
  • In marketing year 2022/23, Ukraine’s sunflower seed production is expected to be down sharply, reflecting challenges from the war. Ukraine normally produces one-third of the world’s sunflower oil and accounts for nearly half of global exports; however, in marketing year 2022/23 Ukraine’s share in global oil production and exports is projected to shrink to 21 and 35 percent, respectively. Moreover, wheat exports for the 2022/23 exports are forecast down by nearly half.

The Istanbul Agreement on unblocking Ukrainian ports for the grain export: what’s in it for Ukraine?
(Country)

Ministry of Agrarian Policy and Food of Ukraine (MAPF) - 22/07/2022
  • Due to the blockade of the ports, Ukrainian farmers received less money than they ever did because of the logistics price. Exporting Ukrainian grain to other ports was and remains very expensive. Since the ports were unblocked, Ukrainian farmers can export millions of tons of harvest, with harvesting season underway, to prevent famine. They will receive money, and in just one month they will be able to sow wheat again.
  • Three ports: Odesa, Chornomorsk and Pivdennyi, will be unblocked simultaneously. A Joint Coordination Center will be established under the auspices of the UN, and will include representatives of the Republic of Turkey, Ukraine, the United Nations, and the Russian Federation, which have provided guarantees regarding the safety of vessels transporting grain and food products from Ukrainian port.

 

Ukraine Humanitarian response update - July 2022
(Country)

FAO - 21/07/2022
  • Approximately 20–30% of the area sown with winter crops in Ukraine is likely to remain unharvested due to the war. Moreover, the war has forced farmers to reduce the size of areas sown with spring crops by around 20% compared to last year. Overall, the reduction in harvested areas and limited access to inputs are expected to result in a decrease in yields and cereal production by 40% compared to the previous year.
  • Around 30% of the available capacity of granaries remain filled with last year’s harvest, 14% of storage facilities are damaged or destroyed and 10% are under Russian control causing a storage shortage. Due to port blockades, the country still has 22 million tonnes of cereals and oilseeds harvest in stores waiting for export. Overall, June estimates indicate that the preliminary damage to the agriculture sector is between USD 4.3 and USD 6.4 billion due to the conflict.
  • Lack of access to key agricultural inputs will continue to have negative consequences on agricultural production and will be reflected in food prices, driving them further upwards. Prices of basic goods, including food, have inflated across the country, particularly in areas with active fighting. Recent data indicate a reduction of nearly 40% in purchasing power of an average consumer in Ukraine, signalling a significant reduction in food access for Ukraine’s population.

 

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