Global implications on food security

Update 20 November 2023

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percent of total calories traded come from Ukraine and the Russian Federation

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percent of the global market of sunflower seed oil is supplied by Ukraine

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percent of North Africa and the Middle East cereal needs and a large share of wheat and barley import are from Ukraine and Russian Federation

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million tonnes of grains and oilseeds shipped from Ukrainian ports under the BSGI as of July 2023

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points the FAO Food Price Index average in October 2023, down 0.7 points (0.5%) from September 2023. The index was 14.8 points (10.9%) below its corresponding level 1 year ago

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countries affected by food crises in 2021 were net importers of wheat and depended for at least 10 percent on imports of wheat from the Russian Federation and Ukraine

Ukraine crisis in numbers

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million people in need, including 11.1 million in need of food security and livelihoods assistance

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million people targeted, including 5.4 million targeted with food security and livelihoods assistance

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billion (USD) required for the humanitarian response, of which 993.9 million required for the food security and livelihoods sector

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million refugees from Ukraine recorded across Europe, 392,100 refugees from Ukraine beyond Europe, and 6.242 million refugees from Ukraine recorded globally as of 7 November 2023

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million registered IDPs as of 25 September 2023

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percent decrease in Ukraine's wheat production in 2023 compared to pre-war levels

Relevant Resources

Latest information and analyses from partners on the impacts of the conflict on food crises along with Global Network's summary messages.

CASA: The Ukraine crisis is a wake-up call for improved global food security analysis – November 2022
Insights from G7 Principles (Global)

Commercial Agriculture for Smallholders and Agribusiness (CASA) - 30/11/2022

The global system is increasingly under pressure from climate change, which makes it less resilient in the face of other market or geopolitical challenges which come at the same time. The Ukraine crisis is the canary in the coalmine for global food systems because it highlights multiple other pressures that will increasingly become systemic as the impacts on agriculture from the climate crisis continue to build.
Where large numbers of people are forced to migrate due to conflict, the climate crisis or political instability, the logical solution is to ensure that neighbouring countries are sufficiently supported with food and income generating assistance. Keeping people close to their homes retains social and cultural ties and makes physical return easier and cheaper. Investing in finding and feeding people wherever they are hungry is not only the right thing to do, it is the most politically economic approach.
Food security information systems have made great progress over the past decade. However, there is considerable overlap between systems, both in terms of countries covered and information provided, which can lead to redundancy as well as conflicting information. A consistent weakness is the examination of underlying and structural causes of food insecurity, which is necessary to inform more development-oriented interventions.

FEWS NET: Key message update – November 2022
(Country)

FEWS NET - 30/11/2022

As of late November, Russian forces controlled about one-fifth of Ukrainian territory, spanning from Crimea in the south to the Donbas region in the east. However, a significant slowdown in ground military operations is expected as the winter intensifies in December.
Though businesses have proven resilient, power outages are threatening essential health care services and leaving many without heat in freezing temperatures. In this environment, generators are now often sold out or prohibitively expensive for households.
On November 17, a four-month extension of the safe corridor deal that permits Ukrainian exports to pass safely through the Black Sea was agreed upon. Meanwhile, delays in export inspections continued to constrain the pace of exports in November. To date in the 2022/23 marketing year (July 2022 to June 2023), Ukrainian exports of cereals and legumes remain nearly 30 percent lower than the amount exported in the same period of the previous marketing year.

AMIS: Market Monitor no. 103 – November 2022
(Global)

AMIS - 30/11/2022

Wheat 2022 production forecast trimmed month-on-month, stemming from a down ward revision in the US, but still 0.6 percent above the 2021 level and marking a record high. Trade 2022/23 (July/June) forecast raised, mostly reflecting higher export prospects for Ukraine, but still pointing to a 1.0 percent decline from the 2021/22 level.
Maize 2022 production nearly unchanged and still forecast to fall by 3.7 percent below last year's output, owing to reduced harvests in the EU, Ukraine, and the US. Trade in 2022/23 (July/June) still forecast marginally below the 2021/22 level and unchanged this month as higher export prospects for Ukraine balanced a downgrade for the US, as well as the EU and the Russian Federation.
Fertilizer prices generally declined in October following lower demand. However, prices remain high relative to historical levels, which along with lower expected farm income in view of declining grain prices is causing many farmers – particularly in Brazil and the United States – to hold off fertilizer purchases. Falling natural gas prices may further improve the fertilizer supply outlook in the near term.

FAO: Food Outlook – November 2022
(Global)

FAO - 29/11/2022

FAO’s latest forecasts point to somewhat easing of market conditions for basic foodstuffs. However, increased climate variability, conflicts and geopolitical tensions, bleak economic prospects, soaring agricultural input costs and export restrictions continue to pose challenges to global food commodity market stability.
At USD 1.94 trillion, the global food import bill (FIB) is forecast to reach another record in 2022. The year-on-year increase will likely be less pronounced than in the previous year, owing to the falling purchasing power of importers at a time when food prices are at all-time highs. Worryingly, many economically vulnerable countries are paying more while receiving less food.
The global agricultural input import bill (IIB) is forecast to reach an all-time high of USD 424 billion in 2022, representing a near 50-percent increase from 2021 and reaching more than twice the level registered in 2020. This sharp increase is almost entirely on account of soaring costs of inputs, while growth in imported volumes remains subdued.

IFPRI: Addressing the food crisis in Yemen – November 2022
The private sector’s key role amid local conflict and global market disruptions from the Russia-Ukraine war (Country)

IFPRI - 21/11/2022

Both the conflict and the global market disruptions have placed extraordinary stresses on the private sector in Yemen. At a time when humanitarian efforts to address the crisis have been cut back, food importers and other private sector actors—always key to the country’s food economy—have become central to the urgent task of preventing the further growth of food insecurity.
Even the enormous scale of food distribution leaves the large majority of Yemen wheat imports supplied by the private sector. With assistance being cut back, monitoring the capability of the private sector to supply Yemeni food markets is an urgent concern.
Despite shortfalls in wheat quantities traded from three of the usual top four export countries, however, total export quantities to Yemen during the first eight months in 2021 and 2022 are similar, with the losses in 2022 largely offset by increased exports from India and the European Union. A greater concern is higher costs—a direct consequence of the conflict—being passed on to consumers.

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