Global implications on food security

Update 20 November 2023

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percent of total calories traded come from Ukraine and the Russian Federation

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percent of the global market of sunflower seed oil is supplied by Ukraine

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percent of North Africa and the Middle East cereal needs and a large share of wheat and barley import are from Ukraine and Russian Federation

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million tonnes of grains and oilseeds shipped from Ukrainian ports under the BSGI as of July 2023

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points the FAO Food Price Index average in October 2023, down 0.7 points (0.5%) from September 2023. The index was 14.8 points (10.9%) below its corresponding level 1 year ago

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countries affected by food crises in 2021 were net importers of wheat and depended for at least 10 percent on imports of wheat from the Russian Federation and Ukraine

Ukraine crisis in numbers

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million people in need, including 11.1 million in need of food security and livelihoods assistance

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million people targeted, including 5.4 million targeted with food security and livelihoods assistance

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billion (USD) required for the humanitarian response, of which 993.9 million required for the food security and livelihoods sector

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million refugees from Ukraine recorded across Europe, 392,100 refugees from Ukraine beyond Europe, and 6.242 million refugees from Ukraine recorded globally as of 7 November 2023

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million registered IDPs as of 25 September 2023

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percent decrease in Ukraine's wheat production in 2023 compared to pre-war levels

Relevant Resources

Latest information and analyses from partners on the impacts of the conflict on food crises along with Global Network's summary messages.

WFP Ukraine External Situation Report #43
(06 November 2023) (Country)

WFP - 06/11/2023

WFP is planning to serve 2.4 million people every month during the upcoming winter season. The market-based transitional support programme launched in October, assisting over 27,000 people with 1,500 UAH (USD 40) per month per person. The total monetary investment value into Ukraine’s economy by WFP surpasses USD 1 billion.
So far, WFP reached over 900,000 people with in-kind assistance in October through a combination of bread, rapid response rations, 30-day rations, and institutional feeding. In-kind assistance is designed to serve people living in hard-to-reach areas, where a local market is deemed not functional, due to ongoing hostilities, damaged infrastructure, mine contamination, or limited power supply.
After the Russian Federation suspended the Black Sea Initiative, export potential of Ukraine’s ports has decreased by 40 percent, according to the Minister of Infrastructure of Ukraine. Targeted attacks on ports and grain storage destroyed nearly 300,000 mt of grain, enough to feed 10.5 million people for a year. Yet, since Ukraine established the Temporary Black Sea corridor in August, the cargo movement through Ukrainian sea ports remains; 21 vessels have successfully left and 25 new arrived for loading, said the Minister on 13 October.

FAO Crop Prospects and Food Situation - No.3
Triannual Global Report (Global)

FAO - 03/11/2023

Persisting and intensifying conflicts are key drivers of the severest levels of acute food insecurity, with recent concerns centred on the Near East. Despite declining international prices, weak currencies in many low‑income countries are sustaining high domestic food prices and hampering households’ access to food.
Global cereal production forecast unchanged from last month, utilization and trade up, and stocks down but still foreseen to reach an all-time high FAO’s forecast for world cereal production in 2023 is pegged at 2 819 million tonnes, representing a 0.9 percent (26 million tonnes) increase compared to the previous year’s outturn.
In Ukraine, the 2023 wheat production is estimated at 22.2 million tonnes, 6 percent more than the previous year, but still 15 percent below the five‑year average. Maize production, with crops still being harvested, is tentatively pegged at 27 million tonnes, about 20 percent below the five‑year average, due to a reduction in the area planted. There is still significant uncertainty regarding the final harvest figure, as the war and potential attacks to the energy infrastructure would limit farmers’ capacity to properly dry grains and by extension discourage harvesting activities. As a result, the total 2023 domestic cereal output is expected at a well below‑average level of 56.6 million tonnes.

FAO Food Price Index (FFPI) World Food Situation
Monthly report on international food prices, 3 November 2023

FAO - 03/11/2023

The FAO Food Price Index (FFPI) averaged 120.6 points in October 2023, down 0.7 points (0.5 percent) from September, continuing the downward trend and standing 14.8 points (10.9 percent) below its corresponding value a year ago. The slight drop in October reflects declines in the price indices for sugar, cereals, vegetable oils and meat, while the index for dairy products rebounded.
The FAO Cereal Price Index averaged 125.0 points in October, down 1.3 points (1.0 percent) from September and as much as 27.3 points (17.9 percent) from its value a year ago. International wheat prices fell by 1.9 percent in October, reflecting generally higher-than-earlier-anticipated supplies in the United States of America and strong competition among exporters. By contrast, international prices of coarse grains firmed marginally, increasing by 0.6 percent month-on-month. Among other coarse grains, world sorghum prices rose in October, while barley prices fell. International rice prices dropped by 2.0 percent month-on-month in October, weighed by generally passive global import demand.
The FAO Vegetable Oil Price Index averaged 120.0 points in October, down 0.9 points (0.7 percent) from September, marking the third successive monthly decline and standing 31.3 points (20.7 percent) below its value one year ago. The marginal fall in the price index chiefly reflected lower world palm oil prices, more than offsetting higher prices of soy, sunflower and rapeseed oils.

Multi-Sector Needs Assessment (MSNA) 2023
Food Security Preliminary Findings (Global)

REACH - 03/11/2023

The MSNA collected 13,322 household-level interviews across 24 oblasts and 105 raions. 20 percent of assessed HHs nationally were found to have Severe or above Food Security Living Standard Gaps (LSG) – or be moderately or severely food insecure using the CARI terminology. Findings suggest that needs are highest in regions affected directly by conflict, with 27 percent of HHs in the East and 25 percent of HHs in the North found to have Severe or above Food Security gaps.
The majority of HHs that were found to have Severe or above Food Security gaps were found to have a complex profile of needs that includes other sectors as well, with the most common combination of LSGs found among HHs with a Food Security LSG being the combination with a Livelihoods LSG (18 percent of HHs had co-occurring LSGs in these two sectors). 19 percent of assessed HHs were found to have Severe or above gaps in Food Security and at least one other sector and 1 percent of assessed HHs were classified with Severe or above gaps only in Food Security.
Around a third of people have adopted coping behaviors with high frequency and/or severity. In southern region this figure rises to 39 percent. The most commonly used coping strategy is buying cheaper foods. Four out of ten households applied livelihood coping strategies mostly through spending savings and reduced health costs. Almost two thirds of households have insufficient economic capacity with one in five households being severely economically deprived. Households spend 48 percent of their consumption expenditures on food.

AMIS Update on vegetable oils markets and trade
(Global)

AMIS - 03/11/2023

With the onset of the Black Sea conflict in early-2022, an effective shutdown of Ukrainian export channels heightened fears about global sunflower oil availabilities and caused a broad-based spike in vegetable oils prices.
After reaching historic peaks in 2022, international vegetable oils quotations have fallen steeply, with quotations of all types 50 percent or more below their recent highs. Looking ahead to prospects for 2023/24, markets will likely be characterized by sizeable harvests and expanded processing in leading vegetable oils exporters.
On the demand side, food use will remain the largest component of uptake. However, biofuels mandates will ensure that industrial requirements continue to account for a sizeable – and potentially larger – share of consumption.

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