Global implications on food security

Update 20 November 2023

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percent of total calories traded come from Ukraine and the Russian Federation

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percent of the global market of sunflower seed oil is supplied by Ukraine

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percent of North Africa and the Middle East cereal needs and a large share of wheat and barley import are from Ukraine and Russian Federation

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million tonnes of grains and oilseeds shipped from Ukrainian ports under the BSGI as of July 2023

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points the FAO Food Price Index average in October 2023, down 0.7 points (0.5%) from September 2023. The index was 14.8 points (10.9%) below its corresponding level 1 year ago

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countries affected by food crises in 2021 were net importers of wheat and depended for at least 10 percent on imports of wheat from the Russian Federation and Ukraine

Ukraine crisis in numbers

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million people in need, including 11.1 million in need of food security and livelihoods assistance

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million people targeted, including 5.4 million targeted with food security and livelihoods assistance

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billion (USD) required for the humanitarian response, of which 993.9 million required for the food security and livelihoods sector

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million refugees from Ukraine recorded across Europe, 392,100 refugees from Ukraine beyond Europe, and 6.242 million refugees from Ukraine recorded globally as of 7 November 2023

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million registered IDPs as of 25 September 2023

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percent decrease in Ukraine's wheat production in 2023 compared to pre-war levels

Relevant Resources

Latest information and analyses from partners on the impacts of the conflict on food crises along with Global Network's summary messages.

AMIS Market Monitor October 2023
(Global)

AMIS - 02/11/2023

After nearing record levels following the outbreak of war in Ukraine, implied volatility of maize and soybean is now below the historical average. This reflects large global harvests and large estimated closing stocks. By contrast, wheat prices have remained highly volatile, largely linked to uncertainty caused by the conflict.
Ukraine's wheat production this year was 35 percent lower than pre-war levels and prospects for a rebound in 2024 are unlikely. While shipping has resumed out of the Black Seaports through the so-called humanitarian corridor, persistent attacks on export infrastructure continue to roil markets.
Meanwhile rice prices have declined in the past few weeks, reflecting a smaller-than anticipated impact of El Niño on production, and prompting some countries to reverse market-distorting policies.

Hunger Hotspots: FAO–WFP early warnings on acute food insecurity
November 2023 to April 2024 Outlook (Global)

FAO and WFP - 31/10/2023

The global economy has slowed in 2023 and growth is expected to remain low in 2024. This is due to the ongoing tightening of monetary policy, which has made credit more expensive and thereby slowed economic activity, and to persistently elevated prices for several key commodities.
Although efforts are ongoing to facilitate Ukrainian exports via Black Sea, with the expiration of the Black Sea Grain Initiative in July 2023, export volumes are limited, with possible longer-term implications for local production. While as of early October 2023 global markets for food commodities exported by Ukraine were well supplied, the absence of reliable marine shipping routes from Ukraine could impact availability in global food markets in case of unforeseen shocks and therefore contribute to price volatility.
Several factors could put upward pressure on food prices in the coming months. Prices for crude oil – a key input in the food value chain – are again on an upward trajectory, with the price of a barrel of Brent crude above USD 90 in late September 2023, from just over USD 70 in March 2023.10 In addition, current El Niño conditions are expected to negatively affect agricultural production, which could lead to an increase in global food prices.

The impact of monetary and fiscal policy uncertainty on the global economy
World Bank Blogs - 13 October 2023 (Global)

World Bank - 13/10/2023

In response to the COVID-19 pandemic, policy makers across the globe unleashed unprecedented amounts of fiscal stimulus to counter the sharpest decline in global growth. As economies reopened, coupled with the ripple effects of the war in Ukraine, consumer inflation shot up to rates not seen in decades in both advanced economies and in emerging market and developing economies (EMDEs).
Shocks related to policy uncertainty have a material impact on activity and prices: raising prices while lowering output, investment, and consumption. An increase in fiscal policy uncertainty from government spending is associated with a statistically significant drop in real GDP, private consumption, and fixed investment as well as a marginal increase in prices. Monetary policy uncertainty follows a similar dynamic, being associated with a decrease in real GDP and an increase in prices. Monetary policy uncertainty is more detrimental in EMDEs and is associated with lower output and higher inflation.
Given the current environment of high inflation and rising global recession risks, policy makers must make every effort to minimize the uncertainty about their future decisions. Monetary and financial authorities in EMDEs will need to continue to calibrate domestic monetary conditions considering the effects of both domestic tightening and cross-border spillovers from higher policy rates in advanced economies.

Food Security Update
World Bank Response to Rising Food Insecurity (Global)

World Bank - 12/10/2023

Domestic food price inflation remains high in low-, middle-, and high-income countries with significant implications for global grain markets, potentially limiting long-term production growth and increasing grain storage expenses posing risks for food security particularly for low-income countries. The Famine Early Warning Systems Network is forecasting that approximately 100 million people worldwide will need food assistance through early 2024, partly because of the ongoing strong El Niño event which poses multiple challenges to food security through either lower-than-average rainfall, increasing drought risks, or higher-than-average rainfall, increasing flooding risks.
Ukraine is completing construction of a dry port in Zakarpattia Region, near its borders with Hungary and Romania. The facility is designed for storage and handling of grain and oil and the transition from the wide Ukrainian rail gauge to the narrow European gauge. The complex’s capacity is 5,000 tonnes of grain transit per day, 27,000 tons of simultaneous grain storage, 4,000 tons of oil storage, and 500 twenty-foot equivalent units for container placement.
Trade policy actions on food and fertilizer have surged since the beginning of the war in Ukraine, and countries actively used trade policy to respond to domestic needs when faced with potential food shortages at the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic. As of October 9, 2023, 19 countries had implemented 27 food export bans, and 7 had implemented 15 export-limiting measures.

Ukraine Humanitarian Response 2023
OCHA Situation Report - Highlights (11 October 2023) (Country)

OCHA - 11/10/2023

The war in Ukraine continues to cause daily destruction of civilian infrastructure, death and suffering, and generate humanitarian needs along the entire front line. Attacks hitting ports and grain facilities continued over the past months, while relentless strikes caused destruction and waves of displacement in the north and north-east. Major attacks left scores of civilians killed and injured, and vital infrastructure destroyed in Donetska, Khersonska and Zaporizka oblasts.
In the south, attacks on port and grain infrastructure since the termination of the Black Sea Initiative in July created additional challenges for agricultural exports from Ukraine. This further impacted farmers already struggling due to the heavy land mine contamination, particularly concerning in Ukraine’s breadbasket regions, including Kharkivska, Khersonska and Mykolaivska oblasts.
The humanitarian situation is expected to deteriorate in the coming months, as the onset of the winter brings additional challenges and risks to people facing harsh conditions. The humanitarian assistance continued to reach more people every week, despite challenges, including attacks directly impacting aid.

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