Global implications on food security

Update 20 November 2023

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percent of total calories traded come from Ukraine and the Russian Federation

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percent of the global market of sunflower seed oil is supplied by Ukraine

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percent of North Africa and the Middle East cereal needs and a large share of wheat and barley import are from Ukraine and Russian Federation

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million tonnes of grains and oilseeds shipped from Ukrainian ports under the BSGI as of July 2023

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points the FAO Food Price Index average in October 2023, down 0.7 points (0.5%) from September 2023. The index was 14.8 points (10.9%) below its corresponding level 1 year ago

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countries affected by food crises in 2021 were net importers of wheat and depended for at least 10 percent on imports of wheat from the Russian Federation and Ukraine

Ukraine crisis in numbers

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million people in need, including 11.1 million in need of food security and livelihoods assistance

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million people targeted, including 5.4 million targeted with food security and livelihoods assistance

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billion (USD) required for the humanitarian response, of which 993.9 million required for the food security and livelihoods sector

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million refugees from Ukraine recorded across Europe, 392,100 refugees from Ukraine beyond Europe, and 6.242 million refugees from Ukraine recorded globally as of 7 November 2023

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million registered IDPs as of 25 September 2023

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percent decrease in Ukraine's wheat production in 2023 compared to pre-war levels

Relevant Resources

Latest information and analyses from partners on the impacts of the conflict on food crises along with Global Network's summary messages.

Commodity prices surged in September — Pink Sheet
World Bank Blogs - 4 October 2023 (Global)

World Bank - 04/10/2023

Energy prices surged 8.3 percent in September, led by oil (+9.1 percent) and coal (+6.5 percent), the World Bank's Pink Sheet reported. Non-energy prices gained 1.5 percent.
Agricultural prices rose 1.6 percent in September. Food prices increased 2.0 percent, led by grains (+2.0 percent) and other food items (+4.1 percent). Beverages rose 1.1 percent while raw materials and fertilizers changed little.

Ukrainian crop production estimates revised upward as harvesting concludes
Key Message Update, August 2023 (Country)

FEWS NET - 27/09/2023

On August 2, attacks on the Danube River port of Izmail reportedly damaged port infrastructure and almost 40,000 tons of grain. However, the head of Ukraine’s seaport authority reported that port infrastructure continued to operate and repair work had already started in the immediate aftermath of the attack. The Danube River has become the main export route since the expiration of the Black Sea Grain Initiative in early July.
In early August, the Ukrainian Ministry of Agrarian Policy and Food (MoAPF) made another significant upward revision to 2023 crop production estimates as the harvest season concludes. Total production of grains and oilseeds in Ukraine’s un-occupied territory is now estimated at 76.7 million tons (including 56.4 million tons of grains and 20.3 million tons of oilseeds), up from 68 million tons estimated at the beginning of the harvest season in June. The revised production estimate is around five percent higher than last year but still significantly lower than the bumper pre-invasion harvest of 2021. Moreover, Ukrainian farmers across the country also continue to face significant challenges, including less liquidity available to invest in agricultural activities.
The impacts of the expiration of the Black Sea Grain Initiative on global wheat and grain markets are expected to be limited overall with the most significant impacts on global markets being greater price volatility and greater vulnerability to future shocks. There is concern for impacts on acute food insecurity in countries and regions that remain dependent on grain sourced from Ukraine, either in the form of commercial imports such as in West Africa or in the form of in-kind food assistance sourced by WFP via the Grain from Ukraine initiative, such as Afghanistan, Ethiopia, Kenya, Somalia, Sudan, and Yemen.

Registered IDP area baseline assessment: Ukraine – Round 27 (August 2023)
IOM Area Baseline Report (Raion level) (Country)

IOM: UN Migration - 27/09/2023

The data collected for the Area Baseline Assessment Round 27 reflects the up-to-date local administrative register of the IDP population as of 31 August 2023, equivalent to a total of 3,516,765 registered IDPs. Registered IDP figures were collected for 1,039 hromadas (78% of all hromadas covered in the Ukrainian government-controlled areas). Data disaggregated by age, sex and disability status were provided for around 76 per cent of the administrative units covered.
Among oblasts, Dnipropetrovska (390,420), Kharkivska (337,443), and Kyivska (334,354) have the highest number of officially registered IDPs. At the raion level, Kyivska (271,789), Kharkivskyi (172,172), and Dniprovskyi (167,655) host the highest number of registered IDPs.
The number of registered IDPs in the eastern and southern oblasts continues to grow. The increase in the number of registered IDPs in Kharkivska Oblast is primarily attributable to displacement from communities in the frontline area. The Kakhovka dam destruction and the subsequent drop in water levels in the Kakhov reservoir also continue to affect displacement, especially in Dnipropetrovska Oblast.

AMIS Market Monitor
No. 111, September 2023 (Global)

AMIS News - 26/09/2023

In late July, India announced a ban on non-Basmati rice exports and has since then imposed further restrictions on Basmati and parboiled rice exports. Those restrictions, combined with El Niño-related concerns over rice production in the region, have roiled rice markets, with Thai prices rising 20 percent since last month.
Wheat prices are still under pressure from abundant Black Sea exports at competitive prices, but markets remain volatile as the termination of the Black Sea Grain Initiative and Russian attacks on Ukraine export facilities have heightened uncertainty. However, although fresh attacks on ports in both Ukraine and the Russian Federation underscored risks to Black Sea exports of wheat, there have been sustained deliveries from the latter at competitive prices.
Even after the end of the Black Sea Grain Initiative and attacks on Danube River ports and grain facilities, Ukraine managed to export via alternative routes, albeit at higher costs and risks. For this reason, Ukraine is currently exploring options to re-open its Black Sea ports, including by allowing ships to sail along a secure corridor protected by the country's defence system. The Russian Federation is also reportedly working on alternatives to the Black Sea Grain Initiative.

Ukraine: Humanitarian Access Snapshot (July - August 2023)
ReliefWeb (Country)

OCHA ReliefWeb - 15/09/2023

Humanitarian access during July and August 2023 continued to be heavily impacted by hostilities along the front line and the international border with the Russian Federation, creating both physical and administrative impediments for humanitarians assisting people in these areas. During the period, a total of 33 incidents impacting humanitarian access were reported, which is the same number recorded during the previous two months, highlighting persistent challenges to the humanitarian operation.
Most of these incidents had a moderate or severe impact on the delivery of aid. 13 incidents were characterized as acts of violence involving humanitarian personnel and assets, resulting in the suspension of humanitarian operations. One humanitarian worker was killed, and eight others were injured in the line of duty during the period. In comparison, during the previous two months, two humanitarian workers were injured. This deterioration of the security situation poses a serious threat to the safety and security of humanitarian workers operating in Ukraine.
The impact of shelling on humanitarian distribution sites poses a great impediment to relief efforts, with at least six infrastructure facilities designated for the storage and distribution of humanitarian aid having sustained partial or severe damage.

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